The Sunk Cost Fallacy

You've stayed up until midnight working.

You're tired. You're accomplishing very little.

But...

"I've already been working this long. I might as well finish."

Sound familiar?

The Trap

A sunk cost is time, money, or effort you've already spent and can't get back.

The fallacy happens when that past investment convinces you to keep going, even when changing course would be the better choice.

It happens everywhere.

"I've already trained this hard. I can't skip today's workout."

"I've been trying this treatment for six months. I should give it more time."

"I paid for it, so I have to finish it."

And, of course:

"I've watched four episodes. I might as well watch the fifth."

The problem?

Yesterday's investment doesn't make today's decision better.

The Better Question

Instead of asking:

"How much have I already put into this?"

Try asking:

"Knowing what I know now, what would I choose from this point forward?"

Sometimes the answer is to keep going.

Sometimes it's to change course.

And sometimes it's to close the laptop and go to bed.

Takeaway

Persistence is valuable.

Persisting because you've already persisted isn't necessarily.

Thinking is a workout too.

The RiKKE Rule

Be curious.

Question assumptions.

Follow evidence.

Stay willing to change your mind.