Correlation ≠ Causation

People who can stand on one leg for 10 seconds tend to live longer.

Interesting.

But does balancing on one leg cause longevity?

Not necessarily.

The Trap

Just because two things occur together doesn't mean one causes the other.

Ice cream sales and sunburns both increase during summer. That doesn't mean ice cream causes sunburns.

Likewise, people with good balance often live longer, but balance may simply be a sign of something bigger: strength, mobility, coordination, physical activity, and overall health.

The Better Question

Instead of asking:

"Does X cause Y?"

Try asking:

"Could X be a marker for something else?"

That's where the interesting thinking begins.

Takeaway

Correlation can point us toward important discoveries.

But before we assume cause and effect, it's worth looking a little deeper.

Thinking is a workout too.

The RiKKE Rule

Be curious.

Question assumptions.

Follow evidence.

Stay willing to change your mind.